Peer-reviewed articles
(with Patrick Egan and Joseph Weinberg) Input-Factor Mobility and the Impact of Host Country Institutions on Foreign Direct Investment in Natural Resources. Studies in Comparative International Development. 2025 [gated]
Abstract. The apparent association between authoritarian governance and foreign direct investment (FDI) in natural resource industries conceals important variation within the primary sector. Existing analyses often fail to distinguish between mining/extractive industries, which must invest where specific resources exist and may contribute to endogenous processes of authoritarian entrenchment, and agriculture, where democratic regimes may offer stronger incentives for investment. Given the dramatic increases in agricultural investments in the last three decades, this distinction is not trivial and augurs against blanket statements concerning natural resources. Yet, analysts routinely refer to the primary sector as shorthand for mining, despite this heterogeneity. Using subsector FDI data, we investigate the institutional determinants of agricultural investment in 50 emerging economies from 1980 to 2010, an historical period during which inward primary sector investment surged in many developing countries with diverse institutional attributes. We consider how intrinsic characteristics of both agricultural and mining/extractive industries connect to political institutions. We find that in subsectors such as agriculture where firms may consider multiple locations for investment and sunk costs are lower than in mining, higher democratic quality corresponds with increased investment. This has consequences for the politics of FDI as well as broader political implications for natural resource endowments.
(with Mirya Holman and Rebbeca Bromley-Trujillo) Hot Districts, Cool Legislation: Evaluating Agenda Setting in Climate Change Bill Sponsorship in the U.S. States, State Policy Policy Quarterly. 2019. [gated] [replication files]
What factors influence agenda-setting behavior in state legislatures in the United States? Using the localized effects of climate change, we examine whether notable changes in temperature can raise the salience of the issue, thus encouraging a legislative response. To evaluate the behavior of individual legislators around climate policy, we utilize an original data set that includes geographic mapping of climate anomalies at the state legislative district level and incorporates individual, chamber, district, and state characteristics to predict climate bill sponsorship. Using a multilevel model that estimates climate change bill sponsorship among 25,000 legislators from 2011 to 2015, we find a robust relationship between temperature anomalies and bill sponsorship for Democratic members of state legislators while Republicans are unresponsive to such factors. Our data and methodological approach allow us to examine legislative action on climate change beyond final policy passage and offer an opportunity to understand the motivations behind climate innovation in the American states.
Manuscripts Under Review
(with Imke Harbers) Birth Certificates and Ballots: How Mexico’s Transition to Democracy Expanded Legal Identity
Abstract. Prior literature establishes a positive relationship between democracy and state information capacity, but uncertainty remains about the direction of the effect and the underlying mechanism. This paper contributes to this debate by examining how electoral competition created incentives to invest in civil registration and to actively register previously undocumented
voting-age adults. We focus on Mexico’s democratic transition during the early 1990s, a period marked by significant electoral reforms, particularly the creation of new voter rolls under the auspices of an independent electoral authority. A birth certificate became a prerequisite for obtaining Mexico’s national voter ID card (“Credencial de Elector-INE”). We argue that under
these conditions politicians in highly competitive districts had incentives to mobilize unregistered citizens and to invest in registration to expand their electoral base. Drawing on administrative records, we show that there was a significant increase in birth registration in the period of 1992-1998, particularly in very competitive municipalities or where the hegemony of the PRI was seriously contested. To complement this finding, we employ qualitative process tracing based on archival materials and interviews. Our paper highlights the critical connection between legal identity and political rights. Our study demonstrates that democratization can enhance legibility by incorporating previously disenfranchised populations, particularly poor, rural, and minoritized voters into the political process.
(with Moises Arce) Insiders and Outsiders on Mining Extraction: A Survey Experiment in Peru
Abstract. How do the distribution of economic benefits and environmental costs from extractive activities affect individual attitudes toward extraction? Our main argument contends that corporate social responsibility (CSR) practices by industry actors shape individuals’ support and opposition to mining activities by including and excluding individuals from direct benefits (e.g., employment, development projects) and/or compensation for environmental impacts. Using a vignette experiment (N=360), we test a series of hypotheses about the effects of information on our main outcomes of interest: (1) support for mining, and (2) willingness to protest. The experiment exploits a feature of environmental licensing that divides the local population into insiders and outsiders. While insiders receive direct economic benefits to compensate for environmental impacts, outsiders receive no compensation. The experiment exposed both insiders and outsiders to different vignettes about environmental and economic issues and then measured their support for mining and willingness to participate in a protest. We find that the level of support for mining is generally larger for insiders compared to outsiders. Second, we find that direct economic benefits decrease individuals’ willingness to reject mining, regardless of insider or outsider status. However, in the presence of environmental costs, outsiders show a higher willingness to protest than insiders. To illustrate insider and outsider dynamics, we complement these experimental results with qualitative evidence collected during nine months of fieldwork in the Las Bambas mine in southern Peru.
Selected Working Papers
The Politics of Mining Company Private Welfare Provision: Evidence from a Survey Experiment in Peru
Abstract. What are the consequences of private provision on citizens’ perceptions of local government performance? Previous literature contends that private provision can diminish perceptions of local government performance, weaken informal mechanisms of accountability, and even lead to decreased perceptions of state legitimacy. However, this literature mostly focuses on NGOs as non-state providers. This paper builds on prior literature to explore the political consequences of the rise of extractive companies, particularly mining companies, as non-state providers in the Global South. Using an original survey experiment, this study investigates whether receiving information about company-sponsored projects affects respondents’ perceptions of their local government performance. I find that respondents receiving information about mining company provision report an increase in the perception of local government underperformance compared to the mining company. Additionally, I find that respondents increasingly prefer to direct their claims for access to basic goods and services to the mining company and not to their local governments. Furthermore, the experiment distinguishes between private and public goods provisions to capture a more complete picture of the extent of private welfare activities carried out by mining companies. I find that the effect of private provision on attitudes is larger when mining companies provide public goods (education, health, and infrastructure projects) instead of private goods (employment, scholarships, and productive projects).
(with Mart Trasberg) Civil Conflict, Political Regime, and Income Inequality
Abstract. What is the redistributive effect of civil war? Recent literature has widely documented the destructive effect of civil wars on economic and social development outcomes in the developing world. However, the question of the effect of civil war on income inequality has not received considerable attention. In this paper, we explore the relationship between domestic civil conflicts and income inequality using a synthetic control approach. We construct appropriate counterfactuals and measure the impact of civil war on inequality using data from 19 countries that experienced a least one civil war event from 1970 to 2015. We find that civil war has a negligible effect on the Gini coefficient, leading to an increase in inequality by 0.05 Gini points on average compared to the countries in the control group. However, this effect is largely heterogeneous and context-specific. Building on the idea that the effects of civil wars vary according to the social and economic contexts where they are fought, we show that conflicts increase income inequality in countries that experience long periods of war and have large rural populations.
Andres A. Sandoval 